The Bills Regression
A Deep Dive into the 2023 Buffalo Bills
Whether it be the “I have a source that says……”, to someone saying that the Bills got worse, because they lost Roger Saffold or “Josh Allen isn’t a leader and hasn’t developed” comments, this off-season has been a whirlwind. The Bills went from riding high as the front runner of the AFC in 2022, all the way down to being on the outskirts of the playoffs. The weird part about it is, absolutely nobody of “importance” can actually explain properly, WHY the Buffalo Bills have regressed. So, while I normally write about the offensive line exclusively, I just had to write about how the Bills have not regressed in the slightest.
Keep in mind the string of tragedies that struck the Bills, it’s player and Western New York. Also remember the injuries to key players, that instantly showed how much they meant to this team.
I’m going to break this article down into key points for what I feel is important to note at each spot of this roster. Please note, stats are gathered from various sites such as PFF, ESPN, Pro-Football Reference and PlayerProfiler.com.
Coaching:
Recently, a comment was made about Leslie Frazier by a Viking player. Chad Greenway took an unexpected shot when talking about the Vikings defense, saying (via KFAN) “we’re not sitting back playing Leslie Fraziers cover 2, just getting dink and dunked on drives”.
Every single Bills fan felt those comments deeply in their souls. While yes, the Bills were ranked statistically as a top 5 defense in the league consistently, but the eye tests tell a different story. From playing prevent defense against Mahomes, Kelce and Hill, while knowing that, the bread and butter of that offense is short to mid routes. Then again in a big moment, we watched the Bills corners play soft coverage against the Bengals receivers on a 3rd and short and seemingly every big down, when everyone in and not if the NFL circles were screaming “PLAY PRESS COVERAGE”. In every single big spot, Frazier always seemed to have the wrong call, but if you never watched the game and just go by stats, you’d automatically think he’s the best DC ever. While I do appreciate the Bills ranked near the top, on countless occasions, I’d see the defense constantly give up 3rd down plays to be converted for a 1st and I remember watching the defense get absolutely destroyed by solid runners. I’ll never understand how he lasted so long.
Does anybody remember when McDermott took over a struggling defense away from Frazier, momentarily, in 2017? Remember just watching how much more fluid and efficient the defense looked? Well I expect that same feeling to happen this year.
The words “more aggressive” have been thrown around all off-season and it’s about time to see what it finally means. By McDermott taking over the defense, it shows just how much trust he has in Ken Dorsey.
Last year the Bills ranked:
9th - Total Offense
4th - Points/Scored - 455
2nd -Yards/Game - 394.4
2nd -Turnovers - 27
9th - Redzone Efficiency - 60%
59.44% of calls were pass plays
40.56% of calls were run plays
My eyes saw a game plan that struggled to figure out how to get the run going with Singletary and Moss. In limited opportunities, we did see Moss struggle. Singletary also had troubles holding on to the ball. When the Bills traded for Nyheim Hines, it was clear that McDermott had some discontent for the lack of usage by Dorsey. The “time” it was supposed to take for Hines to grasp the offense, seemed to never come into full effect, the way we all had hoped it would. Earlier in the season, it seemed like Dorsey didn’t game plan too well for Knox neither. It also didn’t help that Davis was playing on a bum ankle and McKenzie didn’t exactly turnout to be the player we all hoped he’d be (Deebo Samuel type). The offensive line was in disarray, finishing the year ranked 23rd out of 32 teams and for the icing on the cake, Josh Allen had a partial UCL tear in his elbow, which was dealt with since week 9 of the 2022 season.
With that said, I fully expect this defense to take off as last year was a huge lesson learned by Dorsey. We’ll see if I’m right.
Year 2 of Aaron Kromer. Along with making Dorsey the OC last year, the Bills also added to their coaching staff by hiring of Aaron Kromer to help with the offensive line. During Kromer’s last stint with the Bills, we saw a 2 pro-bowlers come from our O-Line, in Richie Icognito and Eric Wood. We also saw the Bills offense lead the league in rushing yards per game. What really makes Kromer intriguing, is the work he had done with the Rams, winning a Super Bowl and also took on the role as a run-game coordinator.
The final positive that I’ve noticed from this coaching staff, from the read I’ve gotten all off-season, is that Bobby Babich seems to be the defensive coordinators protege.
Quarterback:
First off let me start by saying that if you doubt a QB who put up the numbers he did while running for his life and partially tearing his UCL, you are in fact borderline insane. To take a quick dive into his 2022 stats:
9th - Passing Attempts - 567
T-7th - Passing Yards - 4282
T-2nd - Passing TDs - 35
3rd - interceptions - 14
2nd - QBR - 73.4
8th - QB Rating - 96.6
I want us to look at Josh as a passer first especially going into 2023, but if you need to see his rushing stats, he did add 7 TDs on the ground along with 762 rushing yards.
Josh Allen did everything he did with the 23rd ranked offensive line, a brand new offensive coordinator who was trying to learn on the go and really only 1 reliable target in Diggs (for those screaming about Davis, keep reading, I’ll talk about him later). All of that I mentioned and we’re still saying Josh is done, not dedicated, window closed?!
The Bills upgraded the whole offense around him. Does he have a little of that Farve-esk gunslinger mentality? Yes, but I’ll take what’s he does over pretty much any other quarterback in this league. I’m ok with having a little bias in this article, right?
Running back:
It’s definitely been a weird off-season as the Bills have be linked to every single running back has ever played a down of football since the dawn of time. From Jim Brown to Tiki Barber, Walter Payton to Jonathan Taylor, it just doesn’t end!!!!
I’m here to say. IN JAMES COOK WE TRUST. On limited touches Cook averaged 5.7 yards per touch. When finally given the chance he demonstrated how deadly of a pass catching RB he can be. This preseason he added onto what we’ve seen by showing his tenacity to run the ball up the middle. The kid will only get better in Year 2 and now that Dorsey knows he has a weapon in him, along with Kromer’s specialty being run-blocking, watch Cook’s touches skyrocket.
Damien Harris when healthy is one of the better short yardage backs in the league. The question will forever be health with Harris, but even if something were to happen, we have Latavius Murray who’s the most underrated player on this team.
Coming back home to the state of NY, Murray showed he still had something left in the tank last year. While ranking 32nd in the league last year with carries, Murray average 4.4 yards per touch and came in at 19th in the league for touchdowns scored. To put what he did into perspective, Jonathan Taylor averaged 4.5 per touch and Henry averages 4.4 per touch as the focal point of there offenses (yes, I know JT got hurt).
I’m all in on my RB room.
Recievers:
There is alot to unpack here with the receiving core. We had the Diggs “drama” all off-season, we found out Gabe Davis was never full healthy, we all wished Knox was used more, and the Bills went out and signed Harty and Sherfield. We also saw Beane trade up for route running extraordinaire, Dalton Kincaid.
Also wanted to throw in, we signed in the young G.O.A.T, Andy Isabella…..ok back to the good stuff
Beane went all-in to make sure Josh has weapons. I think we have to take a second to acknowledge the improvements that he made (more on that later in this article).
The Stefon Diggs saga was nipped in the behind his first time in a training camp interview. While I can admit, I was nervous. Diggs is here to stay and is looking to add on to his 1430 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns from a year ago. The media seems to be a little lagging, talking about past issues that were since resolved and have resorted to lies about him not liking the strip clubs in Buffalo and him believing Josh Allen is an average quarterback, blah, blah, blah…. In the words of the great Joshua Patrick Allen, I simply to respond to that by saying “OKAY”.
Gabe Davis has showed us who he is and what he can be in this league. Unfortunately, it felt like he took a step back, although when you do a deep dive you see what possibly went wrong. In an unhealthy year, Davis dropped 7 passes, caught 7 touchdowns and had 835 receiving yards. He also had an increased workload as WR2. I think the biggest note was that balls thrown to him had a total of 1395 air yards, at an average of 15 or more yards per target while in comparison Diggs had close to 12 yards per target. The usage that Davis saw was primarily deep targets which have a lower success rate. During camp, Davis did mention that he was seeing more mid-routes in training camp. If he receives passes in an area that has higher completion rates along with being fully healthy, Diggs and Davis will break receiving duo record.
To add to what I just said, the Bills took Dalton Kincaid, who is seen by many, as a Travis Kelce prototype. In preseason we saw the highest usage in 12 personnel of all the teams. That’s the best for the bills in my opinion cause Kincaid is an exceptional route runner and would be a mismatch against any LB or even a slower safety. Kincaid is also a guy that can quickly improvise and create space. Couple that with Josh Allen being a magician, I believe Kincaid will develop into Josh’s safety valve when Diggs and Davis aren’t around. Knox will also benefit from this seeing more openings in redzone situations.
O-Line:
As you guys know I write all about the offensive line and you can see my previous article on how I feel about what we have.
Beane went out and took a bottom o-line and flipped it into, what I believe, a possible top 10 offensive line. I say that while pounding my chest!
As a pass first offense, Beane confirmed that with the signings of McGovern and Ifedi, who are pass block first lineman. He also showed his awareness to get Josh help by drafting Torrence who gave up 0 sacks in the SEC, which arguably produces the best defensive lineman, from a conference as a whole.
While Spencer Brown remains the question mark at large, I have faith that this o-line is head and shoulders better than last year.
D-Line:
This defensive line looks different when Von Miller is on the field and it’s unfortunate that he is not for the first 4 weeks.
The Bills found the desperate re-enforcement on the edge by adding Leonard Floyd. This D-line felt like is was missing being able to get to the QB. Epenesa just hasn’t worked out along with Basham (who was traded). Floyd is coming off 9 sacks, which is the same as Rousseau. Groot has the potential to be a guy who can get upwards of 15 sacks and with Floyd and Von Miller, I think he just might get his opportunities to get that
The Bills also extended Oliver who can hopefully give us 17 thanksgiving type performances. I also believe Daquon Jones will continue to be the unsung hero of this front. The addition of Poona Ford gives us some nastiness against teams during those short yardage situations
Linebackers:
It’s always easier to be worried than to have confidence. I’m going to give you one name that should instill confidence:
Christian Kirksey
Before I go on, here are side by side with Tremaine Edmunds:
Kirksey
86 - Solo Tackles
35 - Assists
2 - Ints
0 - FFs
17 - Games Played
55 - Run D Rating
78.1 - Pass Rush Rating
52.5 - Coverage
Edmunds
77 - Solo Tackles
24 - Assists
1 - Ints
0 - FFs
13 - Games Plyd
56.5 - Run D Rtg
69.7 - Pass R Rtg
88.1 - Coverage
The truth is, what Edmunds did best was in coverage, but you don’t lose much with the rest of the game. Another stat to throw out there is that, Kirksey missed 1.06 tackles per game on average versus Edmunds missing 1.8 tackles per game. Other averages in this case is that Kirksey averages about 7.1 tackles per game (solo and assist combined) versus 7.7 tackles per game for Edmunds. The only major drop off we’ll possibly see is in coverage, but there’s a reason why Rapp was signed as well. The truth is, you will never replicate a single player. Not everyone will have a the size and the athleticism that Tremaine Edmunds has, but in my humble opinion, you’re not losing much here. It all evens out at the end and I think in a better defense than what he had in Houston, Kirksey will excel even more.
Yes, I know Bernard is the Mike at the moment, but I’m just using my magic 8 ball that said “YES” when I asked if Kirksey will start for the Bills this year.
To add, while drafting Dorian Williams is a head scratcher, I feel that if Milano ever got hurt or needed a play off, D-Will looks like he wouldn’t miss much of a beat.
Secondary:
In the words of great podcaster, expect to see the “Thicc Dime” defense a good amount with Taylor Rapp taking snaps at the “LB” position.
Emmanuel Acho came out and said “the safeties are a year older”
Newsflash, the whole league is a year older.
Anyways, I think people forget when healthy, Hyde and Poyer are considered a Top 5 safety tandem in this league. For the record, Hyde is only 32 going on 33. Upper echelon safties usually go till 35/36. So we’re fine here.
Tre White is healthy and looking to resume his status as a top 5 corner in this league. Dane Jackson and Christian Benford has looked good at CB2 in the preseason. Elam seems to be in his own head and we need him to get right, but as of right now I’m just going with what I see.
IN CONCLUSION
Please, please, please, tell the non-Bills fans, the “big time” media, your friend, families, kids and pets….The Bills are fine and until seen otherwise, this team will compete!